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Pandemic Economic Updates

Pandemic Economic Updates


On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 virus a pandemic. The COVID-19 black swan was followed by the Saudis’ decision to significantly discount oil prices, disrupting the marketplace, and providing the world with a second black swan.

Health concerns, a dramatic decline into correction territory for the S&P 500, and declining oil and copper prices have combined to create a high level of uncertainty about what to expect from an economic perspective for the rest of 2020. Through our frequent subscriber updates, blog posts, and TrendsTalk episodes, we are cutting through the media noise to bring you objective, numbers-driven insights.

If you have any questions not covered by the resources below, feel free to contact us. For regular updates delivered to your inbox, join our email list.

Additional helpful resources:


October 7, 2020 - Preparing for What Lies Ahead by Alex Chausovsky

September 25, 2020 - Revisiting the Second Black Swan by Taylor St. Germain

September 22, 2020 - Playtime Isn't Over by Jackie Greene

September 17, 2020 - Tracking the Three-Headed Monster by Brian Beaulieu

September 10, 2020 - Government Stimulus and Deficit Spending in Three Charts by Alex Chausovsky

August 18, 2020 - The 'Stakes in the Ground' for Economic Recovery by Alex Chausovsky

August 13, 2020 - Leading Indicators Hanging on Despite Second Wave by Connor Lokar

July 29, 2020 - Beware the Headlines by Alan Beaulieu

July 16, 2020 - Heightened Concern Over the Second Wave by Brian Beaulieu

July 9, 2020 - When Data Is Volatile, Focus on the Long Game by Lauren Saidel-Baker

July 2, 2020 - Going Up! by Alan Beaulieu

June 17, 2020 - Government Lifeline: The Paycheck Protection Program and Flexibility Act Impact by Alex Chausovsky

June 9, 2020 - Amid Historic Job Losses, Incomes Are...Rising? by Lauren Saidel-Baker

June 2, 2020 - Do Not Fear the Future by Alan Beaulieu

May 14, 2020 - The Changing Retail Landscape by Lauren Saidel-Baker

May 7, 2020 - Europe in Worse Shape Than US, From Many Angles by Alex Chausovsky

April 30, 2020 - Nowhere to Go by Alan Beaulieu

April 27, 2020 - Adapt, Evolve, Compete by Jackie Greene

April 20, 2020 - Deficit Spending in 2020 and ITR's Outlook for 2030 by Brian Beaulieu

April 16, 2020 - Small Mercies - The Consumer Could Be Worse by Lauren Saidel-Baker

April 14, 2020 - A Leading Indicator Approach to COVID-19 by Alex Chausovsky

April 9, 2020 - Turning the High Beams Back On by Connor Lokar

March 30, 2020 - And the World Goes Alan Beaulieu

March 25, 2020 - China Is Returing to Work by Jackie Greene

March 23, 2020 - Forecast Update: March 23, 2020 by Brian Beaulieu

March 19, 2020 - Management Objectives for Trying Times by Lauren Saidel-Baker

March 16, 2020 - Time to Act? by Connor Lokar

March 3, 2020 - COVID-19: An Update by Brian Beaulieu

February 7, 2020 - Coronavirus and the Economy by Connor Lokar

October 9, 2020 - State Shutdowns and Economic Decline with Connor Lokar

September 25, 2020 - And the Question Is... with Alan Beaulieu

August 21, 2020 - Hashing Out Headlines with Connor Lokar

August 7, 2020 - What Do the Latest GDP Numbers Mean for Businesses? with Alex Chausovsky

July 31, 2020 - Public Sector Construction Issues in a Post COVID-19 Economy with Connor Lokar

July 24, 2020 - Trend Signals and Recovery Expectations with Alex Chausovsky

July 2, 2020 - Rising Indicators Versus Rising Cases with Connor Lokar

June 19, 2020 - Are the Leading Indicators Signaling a Reversal? with Brian Beaulieu

June 12, 2020 - Riding the Roller Coaster with Alan Beaulieu

June 8, 2020 - Common Concerns as We Prepare for the Recovery with Alex Chausovsky

June 5, 2020 - A Bit of Good News with Connor Lokar

May 15, 2020 - The Second Wave with Alan Beaulieu

May 8, 2020 - The Recession Playbook with Connor Lokar

May 1, 2020 - Managing Negativity: Opportunities on the Horizon with Alex Chausovsky

April 24, 2020 - Economic Trends Post COVID-19 with Brian Beaulieu

April 17, 2020 - When to Expect the "V" with Alan Beaulieu

April 10, 2020 - Out-Driving Our Headlights with Connor Lokar

April 3, 2020 - Update on COVID-19 and Oil Prices with Brian Beaulieu

March 27, 2020 - The Stimulus Package and US Banks with Alex Chausovsky

March 20, 2020 - Black Swan Event: The Drop in Oil Prices with Brian Beaulieu

March 13, 2020 - COVID-19: The Cost of Action Versus Inaction with Connor Lokar

February 28, 2020 - COVID-19: A Black Swan Event with Brian Beaulieu

ITR is here to help

M. Lee Williford III, The Wash House Laundromats

I have been following ITR for six years now. By listening to and incorporating the practices of your leadership and excellent forecasting, my company is set to weather this COVID-19 storm while providing our employees with extra PTO and time-and-a-half pay for any hours worked. Thank you for continuing to provide measured and up-to-date forecasts for your audience. I’m very grateful for ITR’s measured analyses and objective outlooks. Your work is greatly appreciated, by large and small firms alike. Keep up the great work and give my best to the whole team.

Shared by ITR teammate

Every year when I see Mark Mullen of Griggs Steel Company on the onsite visit, he sings our praises to the board who attends the retreat. He loves how ITR cuts through the noise and speculation and gives him the calm and rational outlook that we can rely on. He is someone that really hones in on the 3MMT outlook, but is also really amazed at how our year-end 12MMT forecast is so close to what happened. He recently told me last week that’s he’s gotten to the point where he doesn’t try to adjust the forecast on his end because he is now at a point that he trusts us, and it was a waste of his time. I always say Mark is so onboard and on top of what ITR does and says that he could work here. He really is a great example of why our forecasting and our forecast checking is so important to our clients and how they make big decisions off it.

Shared by ITR teammate

Jeb Bell of Equipment Controls is a huge fan of ITR and has been since 2007. ITR is part of their internal lexicon on a weekly basis and we are always a part of any financial discussion internally or externally. He is always telling people about our forecasts, the people here, and how it is worth every penny he pays us, and then some! He told me that Brian’s webinar on Friday was attended by his team and they felt incredibly better after the webinar. They went into it “looking for an end”, and they left the webinar knowing it would end and they can continue with their planning and operations. It was a great help to them.

Bill Gillespie, Pittsburgh Valve & Fitting Co.

These updates are reassuring and calming during this time of media hysteria. Much appreciated.

Renee Merker, PMPA

Thank you also for providing the early info on the Coronavirus – “It will get worse before it gets better, but it will get better” – and for your solo pep rally for the US economy. It was calming and uplifting at the same time.


Since 1948, we have provided business leaders with economic information, insight, analysis, and strategy. ITR Economics is the oldest privately held, continuously operating economic research and consulting firm in the US. With a knowledge base that spans six decades, we have an uncommon understanding of long-term economic trends as well as best practices ahead of changing market conditions. Our reputation is built on accurate, independent, and objective analysis.