ITR Economic Calls

Year after year, call after call, our economists have been right when it has mattered most to our clients.

Accurate. Reliable. Consistent. For 60 years, we’ve correctly forecasted historic turning points in the economy 94.7% of the time. We accurately predicted the 1999 recession, the 2000 dot.com meltdown, and we told our clients, “Run, don’t walk“ before the global financial crisis of 2008 that led to a stock market collapse. You, too, can profit from our predictions.

Nov-94 Forecast Year-over-year positive numbers until downturn in 2001
  Actual:  Year-over-year posting of positive numbers until 2001
     
Jan-98 Forecast: Japan heading for a recession
  Actual: Japan down 7.0% in 1998, recession low in mid 1999
     
Mar-98 Forecast:  Lower inflation through the next 12 months
  Actual: Inflation hits a low of 1.6% mid-1999
     
May-98 Forecast:  Stock prices rising trend, possible price bubble
  Actual: Stock prices reach a peak August 2000 and collapse
     
Jul-98 Forecast: Asian economic collapse won't spread to US. US will see only deceleration
  Actual: US slows down from 5.9% growth to 4.3%, but it doesn't contract. Contagion is contained.
     
Feb-99 Forecast: US dollar down against the Yen in 1999
  Actual: US dollar falls 12.2%
     
Jul-99 Forecast: Call for a downturn in the economy in 2001 to 2002 (made long before 9/11)
  Actual: Economy peaks Dec 2000 and is in recession for 2001 and into 2002
  Forecast: Short-Term Interest Rates will be rising
  Actual: Short-Term Interest Rates go from 5.02% to 6.58% over the next 4 quarters
     
May-00 Forecast: Monetary policy harming Retail Sales and Stock Prices. ITR reiterates recession forecast.
  Actual: Economy peaks Dec 2000 and is in recession 2001
     
Jan-01 Forecast: Fed funds rate decline of 50 basis points won't stave off recession
  Actual: Economy down 3.4% in 2001
     
Jun-01 Forecast: Housing starts showing signs of reversal; full-fledged ascent in 2002
  Actual: Housing up 2.2% for 2001 and much better 6.4% in 2002
     
Sep-01 Forecast: Despite mass media view, anticipate general economic recovery second half 2002
  Actual: 9/11 doesn't stop the recovery from happening in second half 2002
     
Oct-01 Forecast: Despite 9/11, ITR reiterates the probability of recovery in second half 2002
  Actual: Second half 2002 up 1.9% from second half 2001
     
Apr-02 Forecast: Look for EU and Japan to join US in recovery second half 2002
  Actual: EU low Oct 2002 and Japan low Jun 2002, both follow May 2002 US low
     
Sep-02 Forecast: Higher oil prices ahead for 2003 and 2004
  Actual: Oil up 18.3% in 2003 and 35.9% in 2004
     
Jan-03 Forecast: Buy more real estate. Good rise ahead
  Actual: Housing prices rise 3.4% in '03, 13.8% in '04 and 7.5% in '05
     
Jun-03 Forecast: First forecast economy peaks in 2008 and recession will be long and hard
  Actual: Economy peaks in early 2008 and recession is worst in over 30 years
     
Dec-04 Forecast: US dollar will slide down over the next 12 to 18 months, but not precipitously
  Actual: Dollar declines 7.0% against the Loonie and the decline is indeed milder than the year before
     
Apr-05 Forecast: Stronger than normal rise in gasoline prices won’t derail economy
  Actual: Economy grows 3.3% in 2005 and 2.3% in 2006
     
Aug-05 Forecast: Home prices stay high for the next 18 to 24 months
  Actual: Prices peak 19 months later in 2007
     
Oct-05 Forecast: Hurricane Katrina won't derail overall US economy
  Actual: Economy grows by 2.3% in 2006
  Forecast: US increasingly dependent on foreign oil. Expect higher prices through 2008
  Actual: Oil is up 16.0% in '06, 11.4% in '07, and 35.6% in '08
     
Mar-06 Forecast: Recession begins in 2008, extends thru 2009, worse than anything in prior 25 years, essentially flat 2010, better in 2011
  Actual:  Recession begins earlier in 2008, year comes in 1.3% points below forecast; looks good for 2010 recovery
     
Jan-07 Forecast: ITR reiterates forecast warning of slowing growth in 2007 with recession beginning in 2008 and extending through 2009.
  Actual:  Growth slows in 2007, recession hits in 2008 and encompasses at least the first half of 2009
   
Apr-07

Issued Top 10 Action List in Anticipation of the Recession

  1. Don't look for some miraculous housing recovery to make all related concerns go away. It will take a painfully long period of time (two years) before we even start a sustainable recovery.
  2. Feast off the current nonresidential construction ascent but realize it too will go into a swan dive, just on a delayed basis.
  3. Exchange some of your US dollars into a foreign currency.
  4. Buy as much land and other real estate as you can. There is no hurry. You have until 2009-2010 if you are trying to time the bottom in the worst markets.
  5. Become highly leveraged with long-term fixed rate debt in 2010 and 2011 to maximize the upside potential of the next business cycle ascent.
  6. Sell your China stock before the 2008 Olympics end.
  7. Find a new product or a new service to sell to existing customers. Or get your current mix of product and services into new markets. Missionary efforts are paramount to blunting the negative impact of the coming recession.
  8. Don't buy a business or other large asset in 2008 unless it is to further the missionary effort.
  9. Seek out counter-cyclical markets like medical, higher education, and gambling.
  10. Seriously think about selling your business if you are going to be at the top of your business cycle in 2008-2009 and don’t want to deal with the downside of the cycle.
     
Jul-07 Forecast: HEAD FOR THE EXIT: stock prices about to shift into declining trend
  Actual: Stock Prices peak October 2007; worst decline since the Great Depression
     
Sep-07 Forecast: "Take a hard look at balance sheets and concentrate on having enough cash on hand to weather the economic storm of 2009 to 2010."
  Actual: Cash is king during the downturn and critical to survival.
     
Oct-07 Forecast: 2011 will be a recovery year.
  Actual: Probabilities are good for 2011.
     
Nov-07 Forecast: Expect higher taxes under the next Administration.
  Actual: It is 2009 and taxes under the Obama Administration are indeed going up.
     
Jan-08 Forecast: No quick fixes, expect ongoing misery in the housing market
  Actual: In 2008, housing starts down 33.2% and prices have worst decline in 37 years
     
Aug-08 Forecast: Wall Street will get bailed out at the expense of small businesses and taxpayers
  Actual: Becomes a reality in September but implementation very slow
     
Nov-08 Forecast: Close to Stock Prices low.
  Actual: Market established low in February 2009
     
Dec-08 Forecast: US Leading Indicator 1/12 low 1Q2009 as a prelude to Recovery
  Actual: US Leading Indicator 1/12 rate-of-change low Mar 2009
     
Dec-08 Forecast: Corporate Bond Prices trend will be providing a positive leading indicator signal for the general economy throughout 2009.
  Actual: Corporate Bond Prices in cyclical ascent early 2009 and still rising through late 2009
     
Dec-08 Forecast: Short-Term Interest Rates in 2009 will be lower than in 2008.
  Actual: Rates averaging 258 basis points decline in 2009
     
Jan-09 Forecast: An upward surge in the money supply will lead to actionable improvement in the economy in 12 months.
  Actual: Economy in a gradual recovery with retail sales providing some of the lift
     
Apr-09 Forecast: Industrial Production in 2009 will be down 10.2%, followed by a modest 1.4% rise in 2010.
  Actual: Industrial Production on target to come in down 10.0% and leading indicators pointing toward a modest recovery in 2010
     
May-09 Forecast: Get back into the stock market.
  Actual: Market up 25.5% since the call to action
     
Jul-09 Forecast: Housing debacle almost over; prices will be stabilizing and then improving, so it is time to buy residential real estate
  Actual: Median new home price up 8.5% year-over-year as of December 2010
     
Sep-09 Forecast: Two or three years of general business cycle rise lies ahead
  Actual: Low December 2009 and still rising heading into 2011.
     
Oct-09 Forecast: Stock Prices would rise for the next two to four quarters
  Actual: S&P 500 in 2010 averages 19.3% higher than 2009
  Forecast: Oil prices in 2010 would average 30.3% higher than in 2009
  Actual: 25.1% year-over-year increase in 2010
     
Nov-09 Forecast: Housing Starts in 2010 would come in at 587,000 units
  Actual: Housing Starts in 2010 came in at 588,000 units
  Forecast: State & Local Government expenditures would be depressed through 2010
  Actual: Expenditures in 2010 average 1.3% below 2009, the worst year-over-year result since 1982
  Forecast: Japan would experience recovery in 2010 along with most of the other non-US markets despite ongoing internal problems
  Actual: Japan was up 3.1% in 2010, but less than our 4.1% projection
     
Feb-10 Forecast: Another great depression lies ahead, estimated 2030-2040
  Actual: Pending...
  Forecast: No bear market in share prices; short drop of 10% to 15%
  Actual: S&P 500 down 13.1% April 2010 peak - June 2010 low
     
Mar-10 Forecast: Mining (excluding oil and gas) would be flat for all of 2010
  Actual: Late-year rally in production, 2010 up 2.6% vs. 2009
  Forecast: Oil Futures Prices will rise above $100/barrel in 2011
  Actual: Pending...
     
Apr-10 Forecast: Recovery continues even with passage of sweeping health care reform
  Actual: Recovery continues unabated through second half of 2010 and into 2011
     
May-10 Forecast: Global recovery will continue despite Greek sovereign debt issues and probable spread to other countries
  Actual: Global recovery gains cyclical momentum in the second half of 2010 with more rise coming for 2011
     
Jun-10 Forecast: Deflation is not a probability; Retail Sales in a sustained recovery trend
  Actual: Intermediate Materials PPI at December 2010 6% above one year ago and indicative of inflation; Retail Sales in 4Q10 up 4.6% year-over-year
  Forecast: Expect initial source of inflation to be imported from overseas
  Actual: Inflation problematic in China, India and elsewhere, with US businesses seeing obvious pricing pressures by year-end 2010
  Forecast: No double dip recession; US Industrial Production would continue to recover through 2011
  Actual: US Industrial Production grew 4.1% in 2011 versus 2010
  Forecast: Retail sales (adjusted for inflation) would recover in 2011, coming in 1.6% higher than 2010
  Actual: Retail sales (adjusted for inflation) for 2011 were 1.6% higher than 2010
  Forecast: US GDP for 2011 would be up 2.0% from 2010 (inflation adjusted)
  Actual: US GDP in 2011 came in 1.8% higher than 2010 (inflation adjusted)
  Forecast: China Industrial Production in 2011 would be up 13.7% from 2010
  Actual: China Industrial Production for 2011 was up 13.8% from 2010
     
Jan-11 Forecast: US Industrial Production would grow 4.3% in 2012
  Actual: US Industrial Production in 2012 came in 3.7% higher than the year before
  Forecast: US GDP in 2012 would be up 2.1% from 2011 (adjusted for inflation)
  Actual: US GDP in 2012 came in 2.2% higher than 2011 (adjusted for inflation)
  Forecast: China Industrial Production for 2012 would be 13.0% better than 2011
  Actual: China Industrial Production came in 10.0% better than 2011
  Forecast: Mexico Industrial Production for 2012 would perform well, up 3.0% from 2011
  Actual: Mexico Industrial Production in 2012 came in 3.6% higher than 2011
  Forecast: Retail sales (adjusted for inflation) in 2012 would be 3.3% above 2011
  Actual: Retail sales (adjusted for inflation) in 2012 was up 2.9% compared to 2011
     
Feb-11 Forecast: The S&P 500 would see a correction in 2011 but not a full-fledge bear, followed by rise in 2012
  Actual: S&P 500 dropped 17% April high to September 2011 low before rising 11.1% rest of the year and another 13.4% in 2012
     
Mar-11 Forecast: Employment for 2011 would be up 1.2% followed by an additional 1.9% gain in 2012
  Actual: Employment rose 0.7% in 2011 followed by an additional gain of 1.9% for 2012
  Forecast: NA Light Vehicle Production for 2011 would be up 8.8% year-over-year
  Actual: NA Light Vehicle Production dor 2011 experienced a 9.9% year-over-year gain
     
Jun-11 Forecast: Year-end 2012 US Industrial Production 12MMA would be 97.2 (forecast average)
  Actual: US Industrial Production 12MMA for 2012 was 97.0
  Forecast: Commercial Buildings Construction for 2012 would be 11.9% year-over-year
  Actual: Commercial Buildings Construction posted a 9.6% gain for 2012
  Forecast: Mexico Industrial Production in 2012 would be up 3.0% from 2011
  Actual: Mexico Industrial Production in 2012 came in 3.6% higher than 2011
  Forecast: The general economy would not follow Housing Starts below year-earlier levels
  Actual: Housing Starts went below year-earlier levels but the economy only slowed in its ascent
     
 Dec-11 Forecast: Wholesale Trade Durable Goods for 2012 would be up 5.7% year-over-year
  Actual: Wholesale Trade Durable Goods was up 5.1% in 2012
  Forecast: Wholesale Trade Nondurable Goods would be up 5.5% in 2012 compared to 2011
  Actual: Wholesale Trade Nondurable Goods came in 4.1% higher in 2012 versus 2011
  Forecast: Public Water and Sewer Construction in 2012 would be down 3.3% in 2012 versus 2011
  Actual: Public Water and Sewer Construction in 2012 was down 3.6% year-over-year
  Forecast: Public Educational Buildings Construction in 2012 would come in 4.5% lower than 2011
  Actual: Public Educational Buildings Construction for 2012 came in 3.6% lower than 2011
     
 Jan-12 Forecast: Business cycle growth would occur in the US while the rest of the world would not fare as well
  Actual: US economy grew while Europe and Brazil contracted and China decelerated
  Forecast: US Industrial Production for 2012 would be up 4.3% from 2011
  Actual: US Industrial Production in 2012 came in 3.7% higher than the year before
  Forecast: GDP (adjusted for inflation) in 2012 would post a 2.1% year-over-year increase
  Actual: GDP (adjusted for inflation) for 2012 came in 2.2% above the previous year
  Forecast: The S&P 500 would gain 11.2% or more in 2012 compared to 2011
  Actual: The S&P 500 posted a 13.4% gain for 2012
  Forecast: Retail Sales for 2012 would come in 3.3% higher than 2011 (adjusted for inflation)  
  Actual: Retail Sales for 2012 were up 3.0% from 2011 (adjusted for inflation)
  Forecast: Defense Capital Goods New Orders would see milder decline, with 2012 down 3.8% from 2011
  Actual: Defense Capital Goods New Orders in 2012 were down 1.6% from 2011