Blog Posts

  • August 23, 2017
    Washington lawmakers are on summer recess, and legislation discussions have slowed in recent weeks, with most of the debate centering on the Affordable Care Act and tax reform. However, negotiations have commenced on another economically relevant campaign promise of the Trump administration: the...

  • August 16, 2017
    I frequently am asked about our outlook for the US dollar. The dollar, which strengthened significantly versus most foreign currencies from mid-2014 through late 2015, has not given back much of that strength over the past 18 months. Although some modest weakening has taken place since May, we...

  • August 7, 2017
    New GDP is out and it shows that the economy picked up some upward business cycle momentum in 2Q17. We think additional strengthening is probable based on leading indicator and consumer-related trends. That is all certainly good news. 2018 continues to look like a year of slowing growth, but the...

  • August 1, 2017
    This week, a topic of discussion was the negative heading that the multi-family housing market has taken over the last year and our expectation that this will continue through year-end before rebounding in 2018. How did we get here? Well, the simplest explanation is that the multi family space...

  • July 26, 2017
    Manufacturing in America before the Great Recession was at a record high. It has come back a long ways since then and it is expected to keep moving higher. In my opinion, most people don’t know that. They believe that manufacturing has fled the country. I can’t really blame them for thinking that...

  • July 20, 2017
    Intel's legendary co-founder and former CEO Andy Grove once said, “Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure. Only the paranoid survive.” This concept was particularly appropriate during my recent client advisory trip, where I was asked to evaluate a model the company uses to predict...

  • July 19, 2017
    Consumption accounts for approximately 67% of Gross Domestic Product in the US. Our ability to consume goods and services provides key insight into what the economy will look like in the months ahead. Consumer trends have turned more positive in the latest month and look good for increased activity...

  • July 14, 2017
    How was your May? I have read a couple of pieces of economic “news” lately that I found disturbing in that they both cast a lot of doubt and uncertainty onto the health of the US economy. These were from notable sources so I am guessing they are widely read and believed. My concern is that...

  • July 6, 2017
    Might Be Time to Pick Some Winners The most frequently espoused sentiment I heard while being on the road last week is a hope that the President will stop the tweets and focus on tax cuts and reforming health care. While there is increasing frustration about the social media communication, most...

  • June 28, 2017
    Every few months there tends to be a popular question or two that become staples of our Q...