Blog posts

  • BREXIT: Following Britain's Vote

    June 24, 2016
    Immediate reaction: The UK voted by 17.4 million to 16.1 million to leave the EU. By noon Eastern Time, the S...

  • BREXIT: What you need to know

    June 16, 2016
    The UK maintains its own currency, which helps make potential separation from the EU easier to achieve. However, we know there is concern over potential financial turmoil triggered by Britain’s exit from the EU. So far, we are not seeing anything notably abnormal in the exchange-rate realm. The...

  • It’s Not All Good News...

    May 19, 2016
    Our May Trends Report Executive Summary talked about the good things going on in the US Economy, including a look at commodity prices. That good news is not, and will not, be felt by everyone this year and even into next year. The March figure for the Mining Production Index excluding Oil...

  • Pop Quiz! Is this U.S. economy growing?

    April 13, 2016
    Relative to where we were prior to the Great Recession, GDP in the US, adjusted for inflation, is which of the following? 4.8% below 3.2% below Even with based on the latest data 3.2% above 9.4% above Accurately finish the following statement: In 2015, the US portion of the global economy,...

  • Job Growth Numbers & Reflecting on January's Lull

    March 16, 2016
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that private sector employment in February increased by 230 thousand jobs from January. This is a solidly positive number. The total number of private sector employment using the BLS Payroll Survey is 2.2% higher than one year ago. The ongoing growth...

  • It’s not all bad news out of China…

    February 17, 2016
    It continues to be tough sledding for the stock market and for commodity prices. The barrage of bad tidings can wear you down. We are keeping a close eye on the consumer-related numbers because we think they hold the key to the future. We expect mixed results as the January data becomes available...

  • Markets are slumping and expectations for China are dumping

    January 14, 2016
    Conditions will turn around because US consumer spending is upward bound. The housing industry looks strong through the latest data (November) and December Automotive Retail Sales were robust at 9.0% higher than last December. Employment is rising at a healthy clip. Disposable Personal Income is...

  • When the Global Economy is Shaky, Bet on the US Consumer

    January 11, 2016
    There is angst out there stemming from the global market’s performance since the beginning of this year. Some are even comparing it to the crisis of 2008. We think this is incorrect because retail sales are GROWING. They were down in 2008. Huge difference. Put your money and your faith on...

  • The 2015 numbers are in... So how'd we do?

    January 8, 2016
    The 2015 numbers are in, so how did our forecasts do? Below we’ve provided forecast results for US, EU, Canada, and Chinese Industrial Production as well as US Housing, US Retail Sales, and US Employment figures. At ITR Economics, our goal is to maintain a minimum 94% forecast accuracy looking...

  • Oil Prices: Good for Consumers, Bad for Biz

    December 16, 2015
    Oil prices recently turned downward again and are trending below $40/bbl in early December. Commodity pricing is weak in general; oil seems to be the poster child for that weakness. The low level of oil is good for motorists and people heating homes and therefore people with a stake in seeing...