Blog posts

  • From the President's Desk

    May 24, 2017
    We talk about our macroeconomic outlook to a lot of people each week. This outlook includes the prospect of slower growth in 2018, especially in the second half of the year. Please note that the indicators we rely on are pointing toward further expansion in the US, both GDP and Industrial...

  • On the Road with ITR Economics

    May 23, 2017
    During a presentation on the West coast, our discussion of demographic trends meandered to a hurdle for many businesses over the next several years – bench strength, specifically, at the top end of the order. The Baby Boomer generation peaked at 78.8 million in 1999 and Generation X, is...

  • Perspective

    May 19, 2017
    I just finished sharing the stage with my friend Chris Didier of the Baird Family Wealth Group. We were discussing the hype about the stock market “falling” 1.8% on May 17th. The hype on this was standard fare with words like “drop,” “plummet,” and “300 points in one day.” Chris and I were talking...

  • On the Road with ITR Economics

    May 17, 2017
    One of the recurring topics that I discuss with ITR’s clients while on the road is the lack of skilled workers in today’s labor pool. It is an ongoing problem for companies both big and small, and it reflects a tight job market that is now operating at “full-employment” levels. Businesses are...

  • On The Road with ITR Economics

    May 11, 2017
    I was talking to a group of business executives, and I brought up the idea of raising prices given the increases in their costs, as evidenced by the rising trends in commodities and various producer price indices. Understandably, their reaction was, ”We can’t do that.” The reasons are common and...

  • On the Road with ITR Economics

    May 1, 2017
    The preliminary estimate for GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 is a lackluster 1.7% annualized growth rate. The relatively poor showing is inconsistent with the strong business-to-business activity we are hearing about throughout our travels in the first four months of 2017. However, the GDP...

  • On the Road with ITR Economics

    April 25, 2017
    I have been asked on a couple of occasions if the 2019 downturn will create home-flipping opportunities in the US housing market. The short answer is no. We do not expect the length or depth of the decline in the US economy and any potential decline in home prices to be severe enough to make entry...

  • Insights from Our President - Brazil

    April 24, 2017
    Brazil is coming out of a steep and very painful, recession. Our analysis shows that the recovery will continue. This will give a boost to domestic firms already doing business in Brazil. Exports from the US to Brazil for the last quarter are 22.8% higher than the year-ago level and the 12MMT...

  • On The Road with ITR Economics

    April 20, 2017
    US Crude Oil Prices have been trading in a relatively tight range in the low $50s per barrel since late last year (3-month moving average basis). The persistent sideways pattern of recent months has several factors behind it, including evidence that the United States is continuing to add output...

  • The Challenge of Success

    April 19, 2017
    Legacy companies will face increasing difficulty in choosing to invest in the future while paying dividends or advancing bureaucratic infrastructure because these are competing, cash-consuming aspects of the business. If legacy companies attempt to have it both ways, they run the risk of ending up...