Blog posts

  • What is the Election's Impact on ITR's Outlook?

    November 15, 2016
    Mr. Trump’s election as the next President certainly caught many of us by surprise. However, it really does not change our outlook for 2017. The leading indicators were going up before the election and we expect they will rise post-election as well. We have been forecasting general economic rise in...

  • Guarded Optimism

    October 18, 2016
    August data for US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excluding aircraft) rebounded from a dismal July. August came in 9.0% higher than July; a better-than-normal increase for the month. New Orders for the month are 0.9% lower than the year-ago figure, so we clearly are not out of the woods yet...

  • Not Great but Good Enough

    October 3, 2016
    Corporate Profit data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the second quarter was released on September 29th. We were anxiously awaiting the data to help us determine if the recovery trend in share prices is supported by improving profits or if the rising trend is perhaps more a function...

  • The Post-Brexit Economy: Where are We Now?

    September 13, 2016
    It has been two months since the Brexit vote. The news is good. The wheels have not come off the proverbial economic cart for continental Europe or the United Kingdom. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris released their first batch of leading indicator data...

  • TPP Could Bolster the Knowledge Economy

    August 11, 2016
    The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement makes a convenient lightening rod. Some folks are concerned about losing American jobs through global competition. Others are concerned about large corporations manipulating politics and the economy to their own selfish advantage within a world view...

  • Economic Update from ITR Economics

    July 14, 2016
    There are several noteworthy items to note this month. 1. June employment numbers recovered from the seemingly poor May data. This relieves concern some had about the viability of the business cycle shifting into sustained recovery for US Total Industrial Production and ongoing rise for GDP....

  • BREXIT: Following Britain's Vote

    June 24, 2016
    Immediate reaction: The UK voted by 17.4 million to 16.1 million to leave the EU. By noon Eastern Time, the S...

  • BREXIT: What you need to know

    June 16, 2016
    The UK maintains its own currency, which helps make potential separation from the EU easier to achieve. However, we know there is concern over potential financial turmoil triggered by Britain’s exit from the EU. So far, we are not seeing anything notably abnormal in the exchange-rate realm. The...

  • It’s Not All Good News...

    May 19, 2016
    Our May Trends Report Executive Summary talked about the good things going on in the US Economy, including a look at commodity prices. That good news is not, and will not, be felt by everyone this year and even into next year. The March figure for the Mining Production Index excluding Oil...

  • Pop Quiz! Is this U.S. economy growing?

    April 13, 2016
    Relative to where we were prior to the Great Recession, GDP in the US, adjusted for inflation, is which of the following? 4.8% below 3.2% below Even with based on the latest data 3.2% above 9.4% above Accurately finish the following statement: In 2015, the US portion of the global economy,...