May 4, 2026

The below transcript is a translation of the podcast audio that has been machine generated by Adobe Podcast.

Hi everyone. This is Taylor St. Germain with ITR Economics. Thanks so much for joining me on this episode of TrendsTalk. We at ITR are your apolitical and unbiased source of economic intelligence.

Today, I’m coming to you all from Scottsdale, Arizona, giving a presentation here today. So I was lucky enough to escape some of the cold and, and be down here in Arizona. And given my travels around the country this week, I thought it was pertinent to discuss population growth because we did get the 2025 population numbers. These are charts and metrics that folks always find exciting and interesting to discuss, where people are moving, where people are leaving. And there were some pretty big changes with these 2025 numbers. So I wanted to talk through that today, not just because it’s fun to know where people are moving, but there’s also a business application to it. If you’re thinking about expanding, targeting new states, targeting new opportunities, it’s really important to understand where that demand is going to be.

So first, I’ll reference some metrics. We looked at population growth between 2020 and 2024. Those were a lot, really a four year period of time. And I’m going to compare and contrast that to the numbers for 2021 through 2025 And again, there are some pretty big changes. So if I’m first looking at 2020 through 2024, that four year period of time, we noticed around the US there were about seven states that actually saw population decline during this four year time frame. That was California, Illinois, New York, West Virginia, Mississippi, Louisiana and Hawaii. Those were the seven states between 2020 and 2024 that actually lost people. That was a net loss. Conversely, we saw some pretty big performers during that time, the highest percentage growth rate over that four year period for population growth was Idaho at 8.2%. Now, of course, it takes a lot fewer people to in Idaho to achieve a higher growth rate. We also had some important notables such as Florida, Texas, the Carolinas, Georgia and Utah and Arizona were also up pretty high in that mid-single digits over 2020 through 2024. So we did see a lot of moving around following the pandemic, but what was really interesting was how this chart changed when we included the 2025 numbers.

So now I’m dropping off 2020, I’m picking up 2021 and looking through 2025. In many of those states that I had just mentioned actually showed population growth when we include the 2025 numbers. So while New York, Illinois and California were all negative, we are now seeing all three of those states in the positive once you include the 2025 numbers. So even though there seem to be a little bit of a exodus from Illinois, New York and California, 2025 says people are moving back in. Now, we still have West Virginia, Louisiana and Hawaii showing population decline even when including the 2025 numbers. So those three states, unfortunately, have continued to show population decline when it comes to West Virginia and Louisiana, we often hear lack of job opportunity. When it comes to Hawaii, of course, it’s often the cost of living. Now, one state did join the decline when we included 2025. And this one hits home a little bit for me, pun intended, because that was Vermont and that’s where I grew up. And Vermont also having some cost of living challenges, lack of job opportunities. So there’s only four states now instead of seven, once we include these 2025 numbers that are actually seeing population decline.

And again, the state with the highest growth rate of people, when including 2025, has come in at Florida. Florida edged out Texas, which is very interesting to see. Now, Texas still had 7.2% growth from 2021 to 2025. So as I’ve said from the stage, Texas, keep doing what you’re doing because you’re attracting people. Your economy is growing. There are still a lot of, there’s still a lot of great news there, but Florida edged you out with a 7.4% growth rate over this time. Both North Carolina and South Carolina are still above 6%, with Idaho coming in at 6.6%. So for me, a lot of the states that were attracting people from 2020 to 2024 are still the states that are attracting folks. When you include 2025 numbers, it’s just interesting to see that California, Illinois, New York ended that decline after a four year period of generally losing folks.

And again, the reason I bring up these trends is we all find it interesting to see where people are targeting, where people are moving to, but it’s very important from a business application standpoint. If you’re looking for where the workforce is, if you’re looking at expanding your business into new regions, looking for new opportunities, then target some of these states where the people are going. I know it sounds clear, but it’s a very important variable for us. Go where the people are. We’re going to continue to keep you updated on these population growth numbers, especially in the wake of this very tight labor force that we ultimately have here today.

I sure hope you found this information helpful. Thanks for joining me on this episode of TrendsTalk. Please like and subscribe to TrendsTalk wherever you listen to your podcasts and look forward to seeing you all in the next one. Thanks so much. Take care for now.