August 3, 2026

The below transcript is a translation of the podcast audio that has been machine generated by Notta.

Hi, everyone. This is Taylor St Germain with ITR Economics. Thanks so much for joining me on this episode of TrendsTalk. We at ITR are your apolitical and unbiased source of economic intelligence. And today I wanted to discuss the global economy, and I wanted to approach the global economy in two ways, both the short term and the long term as it relates to 2030.

Let’s first talk about where the growth around the globe is happening today. World industrial production is expanding, although it’s expanding at a slower pace. However, I want to break that down a little bit. And for those of you that are Trends Report subscribers, I’m looking at the global dashboard from our Trends Report. We call it the Global Economy At-A-Glance, and it breaks down seven different regions: Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Western and Eastern Europe, India and China. So let’s take a look at where the growth is happening here today. The highest growth rate out of those seven regions that I mentioned is actually coming from China today at 5.5%, that is the year over year growth rate. In second place is India at 4.3%. And then you have Brazil, Western Europe and Eastern Europe, all that similar growth rates, that’s 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.9% respectively. So it is clear India and China are far outpacing our friends in Europe and our friends in Brazil. There’s only two on the list that are actually negative in terms of year over year growth rates. And I should mention folks, by the way, I’m quoting industrial production numbers. And those two negative countries are, yes, our neighbors in Canada and Mexico. Canada is down 0.2% and is in the recession phase of the cycle. So we do expect a little bit more decline in Canada to go. And then we have Mexico down at minus 0.7%, but they are, Mexico’s economy is in the recovery phase of the cycle, so at least the worst is behind us in Mexico.

So it gives you a little bit of a snapshot of where the growth is happening. And as you can imagine, a lot of this has to do with trade relationships right now. And you know, I’ll give you an example. Our friends in Canada not so thrilled with our US government right now. We’ve seen exports from the US to Canada decline. We’ve seen imports from the US to Canada decline as well. So our export and import relationship with the Canadians are declining. And that has a big impact on their economy. And we’re really starting to see it show up in the growth rates. What happened in the most, basically in the last three, four months is, Mexico has now become a larger export destination than Canada has for US goods for the first time in history. That’s a big deal. And some of the reason you’re seeing some of the weakness out there in Canada. So give you a little perspective of where the challenges are today.

Now, by the end of 2026, we have every single one of those countries I mentioned positive except for our friends in Western Europe. So we have Canada moving from negative to positive by the end of the year. Mexico moving from negative to positive. Brazil sustains its positive numbers. In India and China do remain positive, although you do start to see the growth rates slowing down. It’s our friends in Western Europe that we’re expecting to see a little bit of negativity. So most everyone from where we are today to the second half of the year is getting better, other than our friends in Western Europe. And again, challenges there, we’re starting to see again export activity from the US to Western Europe decline. Of course, the geopolitical impacts, the inflation really starting to work its way into Europe, so you’re seeing some of those challenges there.

Now, the way we think about this, though, is most of these countries in regions around the world, I should say, when referring to Western and Eastern Europe, we have generally expanding throughout the second half of the decade. Again, there are some anomalies and head over to our Trends Report to check those out. But we have the global economy generally expanding until we get to that 2030 time frame. So it’s important that we understand that where we see the growth globally today is not necessarily where we’re going to see some of the I don’t want to say positivity because we’re all going to feel some pain in 2030, but there’s going to be countries that are a lot less negative in 2030. And what I’ll do here is reference a previous presentation we gave back in March of 2025, when our former CEO, Brian, had delivered a presentation on how the 2030s will be impacted globally. And you can all absolutely still get access to that presentation, heading over to our website, reaching out to our team. Now, the reason I call this out is because again, when we think about US GDP in the 2030s, we have us GDP declining about 8.5% from 2030 to 2036. That is our expectation at this point in time. Some countries will perform better than we will. Some will be weaker. For example, we only have India declining 7.5% relative to our 8.5%, so not as much decline. Canada, similar perspective, even though Canada might be an underperformer today, in the 2030s we only have Canada declining 7.5% relative to the 8.5% we’re seeing today. Now, the opposite is true for some countries, which is take Japan, for example. We have Japan declining almost 10% in the that 2030 period. We have Western Europe declining 14%. We have Brazil declining 15%. Right, so it’s very important to understand that just because growth is happening in a certain region today does not mean that’s the area that’s going to have your business well positioned for the 2030s. So for you global companies out there, it’s important, just like we’ve been talking about the last few weeks on TrendsTalk being geographically located in states within the US that will perform better in 2030. For the global companies, it’s positioning yourself in the countries that are going to feel some of that again, less severe decline relative to some of the other areas around the world. There’s going to be a lot of shifts happening in the geopolitical world we’re in, so I’ll continue to keep you updated, especially as some of these current events impact our path moving forward.

But for now, hope it gives you a little perspective. Where’s the growth happening today? Where will the growth be in 2030? It’s important we’re considering both of those things in our strategies as we look at taking on the second half of the decade. Thanks for joining me on this episode of TrendsTalk. Please like and subscribe to TrendsTalk wherever you listen to your podcast. Look forward to seeing you all in the next one. Thanks so much. Take care for now.