September 28, 2026

The below transcript is a translation of the podcast audio that has been machine generated by Notta.

Hey everyone, this is Taylor St. Germain with ITR. Thanks so much for joining me on this episode of TrendsTalk. We at ITR are your apolitical and unbiased source of economic intelligence. And today I want to talk about the national debt and what it means as we think about ITR’s long term 2030 projection.

I’ve had this question so much traveling over the course of the last month that I wanted to address it here on TrendsTalk. The US debt has exceeded 40 trillion, that was as of the middle of this year of 2026. And I get questions a lot of, does this move up 2030 expectation? Does this change your thoughts on the downturn in 2030? And the answer is really no. It’s, if anything, it provides more confidence that we see 2030 coming to fruition. But I want to unpack it a little bit. So, 40 trillion in US debt, that’s about $117,000 for every individual in the United States. Again, I’m just using some simple math here, folks, but it gives you some perspective. The way we look at the national debt is really unpacking the demographic and healthcare and social security element to it all. And this is something that we do frequently in our presentations. You know, we’ll look at something like transfer payments, which is really capturing Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, among a number of other costs. And, you know, that number is approaching around 5 trillion today, which is again, pretty big number. And it’s certainly outweighing the tax receipts that we’re bringing into the country and from an income standpoint. And so, you know, that’s always been my message as I’ve been out there talking about 2030s, we don’t even make enough money from tax receipts to cover transfer payments, let alone consumption expenditures, or certainly interest payments on the debt, which are now well above 1.1 trillion a year, just to service the interest on this debt. So, when we think about the level that the debt is achieving, it’s not that it’s not significant for us, especially as you think about the interest payments that are involved. Not to mention we have higher interest rates, and with the Fed lifting rates, we are expecting to see continued persistent inflation over the course of the second half of the decade. So, we’re not really getting much relief on that front there. So, all in all, when you look at the balance sheet of the United States, even a simple dumbed down version like I’m referencing here, it still aligns very well with the concerns that we’ve been mentioning since all the way back in 2014.

Now let’s talk about the timing. You know, 2030 is very specific timing for us, because it has a lot to do with demographics. You have to think about the retirement of the baby boomer generation, which has started and will continue into the 2030s. And then, as I remind the audiences that I speak to, you know, a lot of your lifetime healthcare costs come within the last ten years of your life here in the United States. And to have a big population such as the baby boomers going through that during the 2030s, again, aligns very well with the time frame in which we’re thinking here. So, in order to really change the timing, you’d have to do something substantial in the world of demographics, and that’s very difficult to do. You know, I like to joke about having more kids, but those kids aren’t going to be paying taxes in four years if we start having all these kids now. So, you know, for us, you’re not changing the timing. The 40 trillion dollars in debt is a big number, and it does have ripple effects into some of the other causes that we’re watching closely as it relates to 2030. But are we moving 2030 forward? No. Are we pushing 2030 back? No. That’s if anything, we just grow more and more confident.

Now there’s absolutely things we can do about 2030. Some of these things just aren’t politically attractive and we’re likely too far gone at this point. You know, you think about something like raising taxes or cutting spending. Well, good luck getting elected in the United States on the platform of raising taxes and cutting spending, it’s just not a very politically attractive thing to be doing. And that’s one of the challenges with this 2030 downturn is that a lot of the necessary steps we might need to take, or the right steps, are not the ones that are going to get you elected. In order to make a dent we’d have to see some changes in the way we approach things politically here in the United States.

So again, folks, you know, anytime we see headlines like this, you know, I don’t want to say all of us at ITR cheer because we’re not cheering on the demise of the economy in terms of projecting a major economic downturn. But we do see it as inevitable, and we see it as fuel to the fire of which we’ve already forecasted. So that’s our job now, is to say we continue to see the stakes in the ground. We continue to see the challenges that are going to come in this 2030 time frame. So, let’s take these next three years of consistent economic growth, and let’s put ourselves in a position to where we’re taking advantage of this downturn. There are so many folks, especially folks my age, that say they wish they were alive in ’08, ‘09, so they could have bought that cheap property or taken advantage of the opportunities that came in during the financial crisis. Well, folks, this is going to be another one of those times where those opportunities arise. You just need to take the next few years to put yourself in a position to be ready for them. We’re not afraid of downturns at ITR. We’re not afraid of any phase of the business cycle, but it’s important we take the right steps to put ourselves in a position so that we can capitalize on this.

So, 40 trillion in debt, it’s quite a landmark for, or quite a high point for all of us here in the United States. But for all of us at ITR, this is just more of what we’ve been expecting. We’ll continue to keep you updated on 2030. We have even less time to prepare, you know, it’s not that far away at this point. And our job is to help you find solutions and help you find ways to be profitable and create wealth and create market share during a downturn like this. And we’ll continue to do that. Thanks for joining me on this episode of TrendsTalk. Please like and subscribe to TrendsTalk wherever you listen to your podcasts. I look forward to seeing you on the next one. Thanks so much. Take care for now.