Blog Posts

  • April 20, 2018
    Inflation has been subdued for several years now. An accelerating growth trend in the domestic economy and a weaker exchange rate are currently supporting moderate levels of inflation. Our baseline forecast for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) calls for inflation to mildly accelerate from...

  • April 19, 2018
    Unintended consequences are not always harmful Regular readers of our blogs and the ITR Trends Report™ have heard us talk about the law of unintended consequences over the last few weeks, often in the context of tariffs. Boeing and Bombardier provide a great example of what we mean by...

  • April 11, 2018
    As an Economic Speaker for ITR Economics, tariffs seem to be the number one issue that folks want to discuss. The issue was elevated recently with the Administration considering another round of tariffs on Chinese goods (this time totaling $100 billion) because it decided that the Chinese...

  • April 4, 2018
    Profitless prosperity? Not quite. However, US businesses closed 2017 not with a bang but with a whimper in the latest corporate profitability data. US Corporate Profits during the fourth quarter of 2017 (finalized data released late last week) came to $2.212 trillion. On the surface, that...

  • March 29, 2018
    The world economy is humming along. In fact, 2017 was the first time in many years that all major economies tracked by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) experienced positive year-over-year growth. Expansion is still accelerating in most regions, including...

  • March 28, 2018
    Two important sets of numbers President Trump announced $60bn in tariffs against a broad swath of Chinese made goods coming into the US. The stated reason for the tariffs is to punish China for the theft of intellectual property. He is certainly not wrong in terms of the theft of IT. China said...

  • March 27, 2018
    The Trump Administration decided to exempt the European Union, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, and Australia from the steel and aluminum tariffs that went into effect on March 23. Below is a list of the top 11 sources of imported steel into the US. This seems to leave Russia, Japan,...

  • March 22, 2018
    At ITR Economics, we strive to keep emotion out of our analysis and to stick to the facts. Solid economic forecasting and objective, actionable consulting demand it. We use numbers and trends in our economic analysis and avoid hyperbole. I recently heard a (non-ITR) speaker offer two...

  • March 21, 2018
    The business cycle peak is coming. Our economic forecasts have been calling for it since early last year, and our latest analysis points to mounting evidence from economic indicators that it will happen by mid-2018 as we expected. If your business correlates to the overall economy, this...

  • March 13, 2018
    The President imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum on March 8, and that action dominated the conversation for much of last week. We discussed this issue at some length in our ITR Trends Report Executive Summary (which was released on March 9). We direct our economic consulting efforts...