ITR Economics BULLETIN: US Census Bureau Annual Revision

On May 15, the US Census Bureau released their annual revision to the New Orders data ITR Economics uses in EVPs, Reports, and our monthly publications. The resulting revision was one of the largest we have ever seen, and many sectors were dramatically affected. As an example of how severe this revision was, Industrial Machinery New Orders was downward revised by 47.4% on an annual moving total basis, from $61.2 billion (as reported in May’s Trends Report) to $32.2 billion. Construction Machinery New Orders saw a similar revision; its annual moving total was revised downward 28.7%.

Manufacturing Reality

I read a recent article written by a former manufacturing executive in which he expressed his grave concerns over free trade agreements. He lays the following problems at the feet of free trade: massive trade deficit of over $10-$11 trillion; millions of good paying jobs have been lost (net); manufacturing sector has suffered a massive loss, from over 20% of GDP to approximately 11%.

I think these concerns, and perceptions, are shared by millions of Americans. Fortunately for all of us, their perception is not backed by reality.

Tax time cut into Retail Sales in April

April retail sales came out and the numbers were weak (not seasonally adjusted and not adjusted for price changes). Data for all categories is not yet available but we can note the following:

ITR in the Media: Featured in this month's Production Machining

ITR Economics' CEO Brian Beaulieu recently gave the keynote presentation at PMPA’s (Precision Machined Products Association) Management Update Conference. At the conference, Brian provided the attendees with an 11-point list of objectives to ensure preparedness and success in 2015-2018. What did Brian share with the attendees, and what does it mean for your business?

See the bullets below, or for more information check out the full article on Production Machining's website!

2015 ITR Economic Trends Summit

Brian & Alan Beaulieu on how to enhance confidence, reduce risk, and profit from today’s economic trends Where and When: June 19, 2015 | Palmer House Hilton - Chicago IL The 2015 ITR Economic Trends Summit will provide attendees with an understanding of the economic trends they will have to contend with, and profit from, through 2016. Click here for more info:

ITR Economics 2014 Forecasts Show 98% Accurate Rating

Each year, ITR Economics generates forecasts based on our analysis of current trend probabilities, leading indicator input, news/market observations and their likely impact on trends, and our unique business cycle theories. Our mission is to maintain a minimum 94% forecast accuracy looking twelve months into the future. We are proud to announce that our 2014 Forecasts averaged 98% accuracy.

See the full list below.


The Other Side of the Coin

We have discussed falling oil prices in our ITR Trends Report and in a previous blog.  A stronger dollar is one of the factors that have made cheaper oil possible.  This has been a boon to consumers and businesses as both transportation and heating costs have eased.  However, there is another side to the coin, and that is a stronger dollar can have a negative impact on exports.  

We’re number 2? Not so Fast!!

The International Monetary Fund announced that China’s economy is now bigger than the US economy.  This illusion is created using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).  It is used by some folks to measure economic activity like income or how much a Big Mac costs from one country to the next.  It is being talked about like it is universally accepted and the best rule to use in comparing the US and China.  We would submit that it is not the best tool in this case.  PPP has value when looking at insulated, mostly self-contained economies.

What do today's lower energy prices mean for the US Economy?

NYMEX WTI Crude Oil is cruising at $66.73 as this is written.  ITR Economics had not expected the continued fall in oil prices and we shall be revising our forecast before long.  However, for the moment we are going to take a wait-and-see approach as global producers weigh their next moves. 

Income Inequality in America

Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen commented on what she said was widening economic inequality in the US. She noted that since 1989 average income in the top 5% of households rose 38% while the remaining 95% saw income grow by less than 10%. She stated that there is also a net worth gap. Her remarks made it plain that she feels there is an inequality in opportunity and that four areas that would help would be: 1) early childhood education, 2) affordable higher education, 3) business ownership, and 4) inheritances.

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