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COVID-19 Aftermath Among the States

November 13, 2020

How will individual states perform in the aftermath of COVID-19? Catch our newest TrendsTalk episode with ITR CEO and Chief Economist Brian Beaulieu to learn more about our expectations for various markets.

 

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Transcript by Rev


Hi. I'm Brian Beaulieu, CEO and Chief Economist of ITR Economics. Thank you for joining us for this edition of Trends Talk. Really appreciate you taking the time to drop in. An aspect of our research, ongoing research, as we deal with COVID and the different economic ramifications of that is how different each state impacted, how different each state is responding not only beyond the hot cases, because there's not much any of us are going to do about that in the short term, but on the aftermath of this. How are the states going to be positioned? How are they going to be able to rebound? We took a state like Nevada, very much dependent on tourism, significant drop in GDP, and not a strong financial position going into this. They're going to be a long time recovering because of those three factors.

You take another state like Tennessee, which has also had a very significant drop in GDP. Nashville is there, and that's a ghost town right now, for all intents and purposes. But their financial position before this was very strong in terms of both how much that they carried, compared to GSP, gross state product, and how much of that debt was well-funded. There's polar opposites going on there. You have some states like New Hampshire, which has seen a huge drop in revenue, but they're also very well-positioned to bounce back from this because of their fiscal history, their fiscal position in going into COVID.

Of course, the best states are those like maybe Florida, and Texas, and North Carolina. Those are three of my favorites right now because of both the demographic density, but they've been on the lighter side of GDP fall-off compared to many other populous states and because their financial foundation was very strong going into this, and it's going to be healthier than others coming out of this. So, pick and choose your battles, is what we're saying. It's more to it than just the GDP decline. There's a lot to be said for having their fiscal houses in order before, and whether they're manufacturing-centric or not. I'll take a manufacturing-centric state over a tourist-centric state any day of the week for the next two, maybe even three years. Try and keep that in mind when you're wondering where my opportunity is going to be.

And that leads me to my final point, if I may. I think this is a great time for all of us to be looking at our marketing departments and saying, "All right, folks. Instead of let's just thinking about how we can increase our lead gen or make ourselves look better out there, let's get a lot more tactical. Let's get a lot more focus. Find me the best markets." Could be geographic, could be technology, but I think while we're all looking to get out of this, and given that it's going to be two years before we're completely out of this, let's take this time to figure out where we're going to get the most bang for our scarce resources. That's what they're there for. Let's use them as that invaluable tool. Combine the data with some human intelligence, and it's amazing what you can accomplish. Thank you, again, for listening to this Trends Talk. I'm Brian Beaulieu, and I appreciate your being here. Bye.

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Since 1948, we have provided business leaders with economic information, insight, analysis, and strategy. ITR Economics is the oldest privately held, continuously operating economic research and consulting firm in the US. With a knowledge base that spans six decades, we have an uncommon understanding of long-term economic trends as well as best practices ahead of changing market conditions. Our reputation is built on accurate, independent, and objective analysis.