Perspective

  • by itradmin - Fri, 05/19/2017 - 10:48

I just finished sharing the stage with my friend Chris Didier of the Baird Family Wealth Group. We were discussing the hype about the stock market “falling” 1.8% on May 17th. The hype on this was standard fare with words like “drop,” “plummet,” and “300 points in one day.” Chris and I were talking about how easy it is for smart people to get caught up in the moment and lose some perspective. I have had similar conversations with my friend Clark Bellin, of Bellwether Wealth. If the month were to end on that down note (the market was up as of day’s end on May 18), the 1.8% decline would fall under the heading of “noise.” May normally falls somewhere between -2.63% and +3.09% compared to April ( -1.8% is noise).

That doesn’t mean we should ignore the noise since the timing seemed to reflect a lack of confidence that the Administration will be able to follow through on its corporate-boosting agenda. As I have mentioned in recent forums, lack of confidence remains the biggest extant risk to the rising trend given the business cycle ascent occurring in corporate profits.

Ignore the noise. Follow the trend. The rate-of-change trends have NOT shifted into a negative cyclical position as yet. We will be sure to let you know when that happens.

Brian Beaulieu
CEO