Blog Posts

  • May 1, 2017
    The preliminary estimate for GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 is a lackluster 1.7% annualized growth rate. The relatively poor showing is inconsistent with the strong business-to-business activity we are hearing about throughout our travels in the first four months of 2017. However, the GDP...

  • April 25, 2017
    I have been asked on a couple of occasions if the 2019 downturn will create home-flipping opportunities in the US housing market. The short answer is no. We do not expect the length or depth of the decline in the US economy and any potential decline in home prices to be severe enough to make entry...

  • April 24, 2017
    Brazil is coming out of a steep and very painful, recession. Our analysis shows that the recovery will continue. This will give a boost to domestic firms already doing business in Brazil. Exports from the US to Brazil for the last quarter are 22.8% higher than the year-ago level and the 12MMT...

  • April 20, 2017
    US Crude Oil Prices have been trading in a relatively tight range in the low $50s per barrel since late last year (3-month moving average basis). The persistent sideways pattern of recent months has several factors behind it, including evidence that the United States is continuing to add output...

  • April 19, 2017
    Legacy companies will face increasing difficulty in choosing to invest in the future while paying dividends or advancing bureaucratic infrastructure because these are competing, cash-consuming aspects of the business. If legacy companies attempt to have it both ways, they run the risk of ending up...

  • April 13, 2017
    There is more optimism in the business groups I have contact with, more than I have seen in quite a while, at least. It is great to see business leaders looking forward to the future as they see orders pick up. Business confidence is a fairly mediocre indicator of the economic future, but even...

  • April 12, 2017
    Manchester, NH - ITR Economics is pleased to welcome Joseph Beaulieu as the Director of Technology. We are excited to add Joseph to our growing team and to further develop and maintain our information technology systems. Joseph will serve on the Executive Team to assist in guiding and...

  • April 6, 2017
    The ITR Leading Indicator rose through March. Close inspection of the trend will reveal that the rising trend is losing momentum. The rising trend is beginning to curve toward the horizontal. We are seeing the same phenomenon for the ISM’s PMI 1/12 rate-of-change. Keep an eye on the trends....

  • March 31, 2017
    As of 2015, the millennial generation is the largest generation participating in the US labor market, and companies across the US are responding to this demographic makeover in different ways. On the road this past week, an audience member shared how their firm is dealing with the challenge. As...

  • March 28, 2017
    Interest rates are still low. They are low in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation), and they are even more attractive in real dollar terms (adjusting for inflation). The nominal interest rate is 4.15%. The inflation adjusted fixed 30-year mortgage rate is 1.43% (through February). Most folks...