Blog posts

  • Tax time cut into Retail Sales in April

    May 14, 2015
    April retail sales came out and the numbers were weak (not seasonally adjusted and not adjusted for price changes). Data for all categories is not yet available but we can note the following: The relative weakness was wide spread Weakness took the form of year-over-year comparisons noticeably...

  • ITR in the Media: Featured in this month's Production Machining

    April 30, 2015
    ITR Economics' CEO Brian Beaulieu recently gave the keynote presentation at PMPA’s (Precision Machined Products Association) Management Update Conference. At the conference, Brian provided the attendees with an 11-point list of objectives to ensure preparedness and success in 2015-2018. What did...

  • 2015 ITR Economic Trends Summit

    February 14, 2015
    Brian & Alan Beaulieu on how to enhance confidence, reduce risk, and profit from today’s economic trends Where and When: June 19, 2015 | Palmer House Hilton - Chicago IL The 2015 ITR Economic Trends Summit will provide attendees with an understanding of the economic trends they will have to...

  • ITR Economics 2014 Forecasts Show 98% Accurate Rating

    January 8, 2015
    Each year, ITR Economics generates forecasts based on our analysis of current trend probabilities, leading indicator input, news/market observations and their likely impact on trends, and our unique business cycle theories. Our mission is to maintain a minimum 94% forecast accuracy looking twelve...

  • The Other Side of the Coin

    December 18, 2014
    We have discussed falling oil prices in our ITR Trends Report and in a previous blog.  A stronger dollar is one of the factors that have made cheaper oil possible.  This has been a boon to consumers and businesses as both transportation and heating costs have eased.  However, there...

  • We’re number 2? Not so Fast!!

    December 10, 2014
    The International Monetary Fund announced that China’s economy is now bigger than the US economy.  This illusion is created using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).  It is used by some folks to measure economic activity like income or how much a Big Mac costs from one country to the next....

  • What do today's lower energy prices mean for the US Economy?

    December 3, 2014
    NYMEX WTI Crude Oil is cruising at $66.73 as this is written.  ITR Economics had not expected the continued fall in oil prices and we shall be revising our forecast before long.  However, for the moment we are going to take a wait-and-see approach as global producers weigh their next...

  • Income Inequality in America

    October 23, 2014
    Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen commented on what she said was widening economic inequality in the US. She noted that since 1989 average income in the top 5% of households rose 38% while the remaining 95% saw income grow by less than 10%. She stated that there is also a net worth gap....

  • Our View on the S&P500 Trend

    October 16, 2014
    The S&P500 is down 7.5% from the September 18, 2014 high. The price trend online, in the newspapers, etc., looks awesome in a macabre way. What to think about the decline and how much further it might last are worthwhile questions. The former being a lot easier in our opinion than the latter...

  • Good News for Retail Sales

    October 16, 2014
    Retail Sales for September made headlines for coming in below August and disappointing some economists.  We aren’t among those disappointed soothsayers. Retail Sales for September were down from August by 6.8%.  The month-to-month decline is milder than each of the last two years and...