Blog posts

  • ITR Economics 2014 Forecasts Show 98% Accurate Rating

    January 8, 2015
    Each year, ITR Economics generates forecasts based on our analysis of current trend probabilities, leading indicator input, news/market observations and their likely impact on trends, and our unique business cycle theories. Our mission is to maintain a minimum 94% forecast accuracy looking twelve...

  • The Other Side of the Coin

    December 18, 2014
    We have discussed falling oil prices in our ITR Trends Report and in a previous blog.  A stronger dollar is one of the factors that have made cheaper oil possible.  This has been a boon to consumers and businesses as both transportation and heating costs have eased.  However, there...

  • We’re number 2? Not so Fast!!

    December 10, 2014
    The International Monetary Fund announced that China’s economy is now bigger than the US economy.  This illusion is created using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).  It is used by some folks to measure economic activity like income or how much a Big Mac costs from one country to the next....

  • What do today's lower energy prices mean for the US Economy?

    December 3, 2014
    NYMEX WTI Crude Oil is cruising at $66.73 as this is written.  ITR Economics had not expected the continued fall in oil prices and we shall be revising our forecast before long.  However, for the moment we are going to take a wait-and-see approach as global producers weigh their next...

  • Income Inequality in America

    October 23, 2014
    Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen commented on what she said was widening economic inequality in the US. She noted that since 1989 average income in the top 5% of households rose 38% while the remaining 95% saw income grow by less than 10%. She stated that there is also a net worth gap....

  • Our View on the S&P500 Trend

    October 16, 2014
    The S&P500 is down 7.5% from the September 18, 2014 high. The price trend online, in the newspapers, etc., looks awesome in a macabre way. What to think about the decline and how much further it might last are worthwhile questions. The former being a lot easier in our opinion than the latter...

  • Good News for Retail Sales

    October 16, 2014
    Retail Sales for September made headlines for coming in below August and disappointing some economists.  We aren’t among those disappointed soothsayers. Retail Sales for September were down from August by 6.8%.  The month-to-month decline is milder than each of the last two years and...

  • A Look at the June Numbers

    July 17, 2014
    Our forecast calls for slower growth in the US economy in the second half of 2014, particularly in the fourth quarter.  Given that outlook, there should be empiric evidence of the shift in economic activity from acceleration to deceleration.  Those changes never occur in a vacuum and are...

  • Corporate Profit Blues

    June 25, 2014
    Corporate profits in the US took a nose dive in the first quarter of 2014 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov).  Profits in the first quarter of 2014 came in 3.0% below the first-quarter of 2013 and a steep 9.8% below the fourth-quarter-2013 figure.  The 9.8% drop is...

  • ECB and Negative Interest Rates

    June 9, 2014
    The European Central Bank (ECB) introduced negative interest rates for the first time in its history.  This historic action caught the attention of the press, so I thought you might like a quick look at what it means without having to listen to a long lecture that will make the details on the...