Blog posts

  • Job Growth Numbers & Reflecting on January's Lull

    March 16, 2016
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that private sector employment in February increased by 230 thousand jobs from January. This is a solidly positive number. The total number of private sector employment using the BLS Payroll Survey is 2.2% higher than one year ago. The ongoing growth...

  • It’s not all bad news out of China…

    February 17, 2016
    It continues to be tough sledding for the stock market and for commodity prices. The barrage of bad tidings can wear you down. We are keeping a close eye on the consumer-related numbers because we think they hold the key to the future. We expect mixed results as the January data becomes available...

  • Markets are slumping and expectations for China are dumping

    January 14, 2016
    Conditions will turn around because US consumer spending is upward bound. The housing industry looks strong through the latest data (November) and December Automotive Retail Sales were robust at 9.0% higher than last December. Employment is rising at a healthy clip. Disposable Personal Income is...

  • When the Global Economy is Shaky, Bet on the US Consumer

    January 11, 2016
    There is angst out there stemming from the global market’s performance since the beginning of this year. Some are even comparing it to the crisis of 2008. We think this is incorrect because retail sales are GROWING. They were down in 2008. Huge difference. Put your money and your faith on...

  • The 2015 numbers are in... So how'd we do?

    January 8, 2016
    The 2015 numbers are in, so how did our forecasts do? Below we’ve provided forecast results for US, EU, Canada, and Chinese Industrial Production as well as US Housing, US Retail Sales, and US Employment figures. At ITR Economics, our goal is to maintain a minimum 94% forecast accuracy looking...

  • Oil Prices: Good for Consumers, Bad for Biz

    December 16, 2015
    Oil prices recently turned downward again and are trending below $40/bbl in early December. Commodity pricing is weak in general; oil seems to be the poster child for that weakness. The low level of oil is good for motorists and people heating homes and therefore people with a stake in seeing...

  • Big Four Economies? Not so fast...

    November 19, 2015
    The rising trends in the US housing industry, October improvement in the S...

  • Dr. Alan Beaulieu voted one of "Planners' Favorite Speakers!"

    November 18, 2015
    We are very pleased to announce that ITR Economics' President, Dr. Alan Beaulieu, has been voted one of Meeting & Convention Magazine's "Planners' Favorite Speakers!" Meeting planners were asked "Who is the single best speaker you have heard in the past two years?" Alan makes the list along...

  • A Tale of Two Trends

    October 14, 2015
    A tale of two trends. That is what it feels like these days. The consumer-related trends are healthy and pointing toward a growing economy. Other trends, such as Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders, are pointing in the opposite direction. What is a manager to do? Know which leading indicators...

  • What does the economy tell us about the future for Forming & Fabricating?

    October 13, 2015
    In this post, we will explore what the economy has in store for the Forming & Fabricating industries and the trends that should impact business decisions among those in the industry. Annual economic growth in the US, as measured by Industrial Production, has slowed substantially since reaching...