Blog Posts

  • March 7, 2018
    Electric and hybrid vehicles have been billed as the transportation of the future. In 2017, global sales of electric vehicles surpassed one million units for the first time, bringing the total stock of electric cars above three million. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that...

  • March 1, 2018
    A tariff tantrum it is, seemingly, when it comes to US trade policy in 2018. Early this morning, US President Donald Trump tweeted out his latest thoughts on the rumored tariffs coming for steel and aluminum imports (below), apparently doubling down on his wish to see them come to fruition...

  • February 28, 2018
    Tariffs and quotas on imports are inflationary. Businesses whose consumer products are made from the “protected goods/material” typically see two effects: The cost of the component/manufacturing input will rise. Especially regarding certain steel grades. We simply do not have sufficient...

  • February 27, 2018
    We are at that point in the business cycle when the leading indicator signals become “mixed.” Our leading indicator methodology is set up to account for this. We wait until two, then five, and ultimately 10 indicators have flipped from rise to decline, as is the case for 2017-2018. When...

  • February 26, 2018
    There are a lot of opportunities to make money in defense spending, but first, let’s put defense spending into its proper context. It was a huge part of overall federal spending in 2017 but not the largest, as the table below shows. (ITR’s business cycle phases are A, B, C, and D. Phase B is when...

  • February 21, 2018
    ITR Economics has advocated for many years that companies should invest in their future growth at the bottom of the business cycle. Our leading indicator methodology is designed to help firms predict when future cyclical lows and highs in their markets, and their businesses, will occur...

  • February 15, 2018
    ITR projected a slowing rate of growth in GDP and US Industrial Production in the second half of this year. The recent decline in the stock market, as measured by the S...

  • February 8, 2018
    The S...

  • February 1, 2018
    A recent study by Bank of America has been getting a lot of attention for its optimistic findings on millennial savings habits. According to the study, nearly half of millennials (aged 23 to 37) have at least $15,000 in savings, while one in six have saved $100,000 — twice the rate seen in...

  • January 25, 2018
    There seems to be a broad assumption that the tax law changes are going to dump a lot of fresh, free cash into the economy. We are hopeful that it will move the economic needle, but we urge caution because more data is needed. For instance, the potential to repatriate overseas profits has...